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ABSTRACT

Countries that sign up for a regional trade agreement (RTA) anticipate benefitting from openness through the increased trade. This research aims to evaluate how the free trade zone of Africa will affect the selected member states of East African Community (EAC) in terms of export promotion and welfare enhancement. Data for selected 5 EAC members (Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya and Burundi) from the World Development Indicators for the period 1997 through 2020 were analysed. Given that endogeneity is a common issue in econometric analysis, we will use a generalized method of moments (GMM) to estimate a linear dynamic panel data model while accounting for this problem of endogeneity. Accordingly, Arellano and Bond estimator (Arellando & Bond, 1991; Balgati, 2005) will be employed to estimate the specified panel model so as to identify the factors underlying export promotion and welfare improvement. We selected this model to take delight from the benefits of panel econometric analysis whereby they permit the measure of dynamics of the phenomenon under investigation. We will follow Blundell and Bond (1998) so as to adopt an autoregressive model with lag 1 (AR(1)) to account for unobserved individual-specific effects. Estimation results are expected to show the contribution of free trade are in Africa to promote exports among selected members of East African Community. We will base on the research results to highlight where more policy efforts are necessary to pursue free trade development among the EAC countries.

 

Key words: export promotion, openness, welfare improvement, East African Community, AfCFTA. 

AUTHORS
Aristide Maniriho, Jonas Barayandema, Yvonne Umulisa & Pascal Kayisire